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Boca Country Club Statistics

Updated in June 2014

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10 year chart

Prices jump higher on the first sales of the year. And the discount rate has moved higher as sellers struggle to sell in an increasingly difficult market. Sales continue to move higher and it looks like this will be the best year at the Club in over five years. Already more homes have sold in a little over five months than sold in a full year at the bottom of the housing bust. There are currently 8 homes with contracts on them. At least 4 sales should occur in the next 30 days, perhaps more. A strong burst in sales will reverse the surprising slump in closings (as prices continue higher).

What the "Prices" chart means:

Prices have started to rebound, but they remain below 2007 prices. It's a good time to buy, and the next month or two should show some housing numbers that keep sellers from getting too greedy. Primarily because the supply of homes continues to fall. And buyers remain on the sidelines. Investors have virtually left the market. The sales triangle continues to shrink. Nevertheless, prices will continue higher, and the highs of 2005 might arrive within three or four years.

What the "$ SqFt" chart means:

Air-conditioned square feet are perhaps the strongest buying tool around. Although no two square feet are the same, they are a great negotiating tool with overpriced buyers. They have been creeping up since 2010, but they remain a useful bargaining chip. And they are still well below the "hot selling" days of 2005.

What the "Discount Rate" chart means:

The discount rate is one of the most misused tools of price negotiation. Largely because it's skewed in favor of the seller, not the buyer. Here's what happens: when a listing expires, and another (or the same) Realtor® takes over the listing, the original listing price usually resets for the new listing. You can find the original asking price, but you may have to get it from the County Appraiser's Office. The real discount rate in an area could be twice as large as the one reported by a real estate board. Good price research pays. One of our negotiation chips in settling on a price should be the "real" discount rate. That will be based on the original listing price of the home, not the latest listing contract.

What the chart means:

The Days on Market (DOM) number is an underused tools of price negotiation. Again, largely because it's skewed in favor of the seller, not the buyer. Here's how it happens: when a listing expires, and another (or the same) Realtor® takes over the listing, the DOM (Days-On-Market) number resets to zero. The length of time a house has been on the market is a great bargaining chip if it is a big number. But the "reset" keeps it small. Use the real number, not the reset number, and you might get a much better deal. It takes negotiation. But there can be no doubt that the real estate market is getting tighter, with fewer homes on the selling block.

 

What the chart means:

We've started the year well at the Boca Country Club -- only one house below last year's torrid pace of selling. Now it's up to the Spring buyers. Traditionally, they ratcheted sales higher. Between 2004 and 2010, only one year showed a shortfall. That was last year, a disaster. This year, it looks like the number of sales will continue higher.

Boca Country Club: Florida's Crystal Ball

We use the Boca Country Club as a statistical crystal ball and it looks positive right now. However, the stats from the Boca area, Palm Beach County, and southeast Florida tell a story of slumping sales. We think back to the Great Housing collapse that began in 2005. The Boca Country Club predicted that collapse a year before it kicked down the doors. Let's hope it's equally smart about any future recovery.

Greater Boca Raton Year-On-Year Comparisons

The greater Boca Raton area has suffered a gradual decline for well over a year, with a blip higher late lastsummer, then getting worse in the fourth quarter. Some hope appeared in December, but the New Year faltered. January numbers slumped. And they rolled even lower into a weak February. March and April continue the collapse. This month does not look much better. The pattern needs to reverse, or the housing market will slip into a tailspin which ultimately effects the American economy.

Palm Beach County Year-On-Year Comparisons

A jagged move lower throughout 2013 with the final quarter showing no recovery at the county level, and the New Year continuing lower. January showed no real recovery. And February continued the disaster with March and April slipping lower. May projects lower still. Either we are reaching for a bottom, or slipping off a cliff, and it's hard to tell which scenario represents reality. Time for buyers to get off the banana peel.

PB Sales Sept


South East Florida Year-On-Year Comparisons

Sales keep whacking their head on the reality of tough mortgages and weak appraisals. Limited hope last December helped the market stumble higher. But January reversed lower again. February continued the negative tone of real estate. March, April and May accelerated the collapse.The lack of reserves in homeowner and condo associations was rumored to halt some bank loans. Pundits will blame the arctic freeze for collapsing real estate. But these are South Florida statistics ... and south Florida escaped the polar express. April slid hard. May showed no recovery. The collapse appears real.


SE Florida Sales


Read the Broker's Commentary. It's fun.

Bocasite Real Estate

Contact Information

Mailing Address: 3755 Mykonos Court, Boca Raton, FL 33487
E-mail Address: kerstin@bocaswede.com or temple@sellnow.net
Direct Phone: 561-241-6323
Cell phone: 561-271-8121 (Kerstin) 561-251-6187 (Temple)
Direct Fax #: 561-241-6358

Office Address: Templeworks Properties LLC, 3755 Mykonos Ct., Boca Raton, FL 33487

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